MATH 111A (Fall Quarter 2013).
Mathematical Modelling I

Instructor: David A. Meyer
Office hours (Fall Quarter): AP&M 7256, W 10:00am-11:00am, or by appointment
Lecture: Warren Lecture Hall 2112, MWF 9:00am-9:50am
Email: dmeyer "at" math "dot" ucsd "dot" edu

TA: Gautam Wilkins
Office hours (Fall Quarter): AP&M 5712, W 11:00am-1:00pm, or by appointment
Section: Warren Lecture Hall 2112, M 7:00pm-7:50pm
Email: gwilkins "at" math "dot" ucsd "dot" edu

Course description

This course is a focused introduction to mathematical modelling. In 2013 I plan to discuss mathematical models drawn from a wide range of topics (but mostly outside the familiar contexts of the physical science and engineering) including biology, economics, political science, and culture. (For inspiration see [1,2].) The relevant mathematical methods include: (systems of) ordinary differential equations, graphs/networks, probability, partial differential equations, eigenvalues/eigenvectors, permutations, and dimension theory.

The goals of this course are: (1) to explain what it means to construct a mathematical model of some real-world phenomenon, (2) to introduce some of the mathematical ideas that are used in many such models, (3) to apply these methods to analyze one or more real problems, and (4) to understand how new mathematical ideas are motivated by such modelling.

The prerequisites are the lower-division math sequence through differential equations (20D) and linear algebra (20F or 31A), or consent of the instructor. Please contact me if you are interested but unsure if your mathematics background will suffice.

The textbook is E. A. Bender, An Introduction to Mathematical Modeling (Mineola, NY: Dover 2000).

I expect interest and enthusiasm from the students in this class. 30% of the grade is class participation, which includes occasional homework assignments, often for class discussion. 70% of the grade is based upon a mathematical modelling project for which each student writes a proposal (15%), writes a preliminary report (10%), gives a final presentation (20%), and writes a final report (25%). Some titles of projects from previous years are listed at the bottom of the page.

I recommend, but do not require, that you prepare your written materials using some dialect of TeX [3]. In any case, please do not send me Word documents; convert them to pdf first.

Related events

1 Mar 14 Application deadline for undergraduate summer program in mathematical and theoretical biology at Arizona State University.
15 Dec 13/15 Jan 14 Application deadline for graduate studies at the University of Waterloo Institute for Quantum Computing.
1 Nov 13 Submission deadline for Hertz Foundation Graduate Fellowships.
16 Oct 13 "Math and the Body and the Mind"
Arthur C. Clarke Center for Human Imagination Colloquium, Atkinson Auditorium, 5:30-7:30pm
10 Oct 13 Meg Urry (Yale), "The growth of supermassive black holes and galaxies over cosmic time"
Physics Colloquium, BSB Garren Auditorium, 4:00pm
9 Oct 13 Meg Urry (Yale), "Why so few? The dearth of women in physics and astronomy"
Astrophysics Seminar, SERF 383, 4:00pm
See also Eileen Pollack, "Why are there still so few women in science?", New York Times Magazine (3 October 2013).

Syllabus (homework in green)

27 Sep 13
DM lecture
administrative details
overview/motivation
population growth model
HWK (for M 30 Sep 13).
         Read Bender, chap. 1.
         Find something in the news or elsewhere that suggests a system that could be modeled (or not); email me link (if there is one) and be prepared to discuss in class.
         Solve y' = (M - y)y; turn in written solution in section.
30 Sep 13
discussion
discussion of news items or other sources suggesting mathematical models (or not)
         Energy requirements for hot-air balloons
         Rise and fall of slang words/expressions
         Admission of freshmen and transfer students to UCSD
         Optimizing study schedules
         Economic benefits of TV/movie production: "Breaking up with 'Breaking Bad' is hard for Albuquerque"
2 Oct 13
discussion
overview of the process of constructing a mathematical model
continued discussion of news items or other sources suggesting mathematical models (or not)
         "In fragmented forests, rapid mammal extinctions"
         Unemployment rate
         Optimizing dining hall hours
HWK.
         Read Bender, chap. 2 (for F 4 Oct).
         Solve problems 5, 7 (Bender, pages 33, 34); turn in written solution in section (M 7 Oct).
4 Oct 13
DM lecture
scaling as a technique for mathematical modeling
         length, area, volume of similar shapes
         more then 3 dimensions
         surface to volume scaling with dimension
human weight vs height
         example: basketball players who declare for the NBA draft
         does weight scale as the cube of height? [Mathematica notebook]
         images: Shawn Bradley, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Isaiah Thomas
7 Oct 13
DM lecture
         least-squares fits: definition and computation [Mathematica notebook]
         Does a better fit mean a better model?
         distribution of residuals
         normal distributions [notes]
                 distribution of adult heights
HWK.
         Read Bender, appendix A.
9 Oct 13
DM lecture
graphical methods for optimization
         indifference curves
         Pareto set in Edgeworth box
         optimization subject to budget constraint
         substitutes and complements
         demand sets
HWK.
         Read Bender, chap. 4.
         Solve prob. 6 (Bender, page 90); turn in written solution in section (M 14 Oct).
11 Oct 12
discussion
HWK.
         Read Varian's article on how to build a model [4].
         Read Gray's article on how to write an abstract [5].
         Look at some proposals/videos on Kickstarter, e.g., GoldieBlox.
         Draft project proposal (due by M 21 Oct 13):
                 Describe the system for which you propose to construct a mathematical model.
                 What question will the model answer? Why is that important/interesting?
                 What features/variables will the model include?
                 What features/variables may be relevant but will be exogenous to your model?
                 What kind of mathematics will you use?
                 If you intend to use real data, describe them and explain how you will get them.
                 Give an approximate timeline for accomplishing the various pieces of your project.
                 If you will be working with someone else, explain how the work will be allocated and coordinated.
         Should be 2-4 pages. I prefer that you submit an electronic version, ideally a pdf file of a TeX [3] document.
         If you want to try making a video à la Kickstarter, I'll be pleased to watch it.
14 Oct 13
DM lecture
towards a model for school choice in the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD)
         motivation: 'excessed teachers' reassigned in week 6 of school year
         estimating neighborhood enrollment
                 many factors
                 binomial distribution
                 expectation and variance of random variables
HWK.
         Read Bender, chap. 5.
16 Oct 13
DM lecture
         school capacity
         utility as function of enrollment
         [notes]
18 Oct 13
No lecture; work on project proposal.
(DM at Johns Hopkins University memorial for father)
23 Oct 13
DM lecture
feedback on project proposals
         broad range of interesting topics
         content problems
                 some need more details on math part of model
                 if a regression model, include developement of functional form of dependence
                 some need more discussion of existing models
         writing problems [6,7,8]
                 punctuation: Latin phrases, commas, semicolons
                 grammar: subject/verb agreement, moun/pronoun agreement ("their"), verb tenses
                 style: "however", split verbs, repetition, parallel construction
25 Oct 13
No lecture; work on project..
(DM at UC diversity workshop)
1 Nov 13
DM lecture
         do polymath projects examplify benefits of diversity, or of collaboration?
                 digression and mathematics cultural enrichment
                         Prime Number Theorem
                         Prime Pairs Conjecture
                         Zhang's Bounded Gap Theorem [9]
                         polymath 8 reduction of Zhang's bound [10]
         Hong and Page's search problem [11]
                 simulations [Mathematica notebook]
25 Nov 13
presentations
Chessa
Filip
27 Nov 13
presentations
Anthony
Christina
Clara
29 Nov 13
Thanksgiving vacation.

2 Dec 13
presentations
Carlos
Kunal
Steven P.
2 Dec 13
section
Francisco/Jennifer
4 Dec 13
presentations
Björn
Tylon
5 Dec 13
presentations
Thursday evening 6pm until we finish, AP&M 6402; pizza
Avani
Grace
Jack
Jason
Joshua B.
Joshua S.
Peihong
Stephanie
Ziyi/Fengyi
6 Dec 13
presentations
Helen
June
Steven N.

Suggested reading

[1] I. Asimov, The Foundation Trilogy (New York: Gnome Press 1951).
[2] P. R. Krugman, "Introduction to The Foundation Trilogy" (Folio Society 2012).
[3] D. E. Knuth, The TeXbook, Computers and Typesetting, Volume A (Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley 1984).
[4] H. R. Varian, "How to build an economic model in your spare time", The American Economist 41 (1997) 3—10.
[5] N. Gray, "Abstract science", The Huffington Post (2012).
[6] W. Strunk, Jr., The Elements of Style, First Ed. (Ithaca, NY: Press of W. P. Humphrey 1918).
[7] W. Strunk, Jr. and E. B. White, The Elements of Style, Fourth Ed. (White Plains, NY: Longman 1999).
[8] H. W. Fowler, A Dictionary of Modern English Usage, First Ed. (Oxford: Clarendon Press 1926).
[9] Y. Zhang, "Bounded gaps between primes", Annals of Mathematics, to appear.
[10] D. H. J. Polymath, "A new bound for gaps between primes", preprint (2013).
[11] L. Hong and S. E. Page, "Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 (16 Nov 2004) 16385—16389.

Titles of projects from previous years


Last modified: 4 December 2013.